CONCACAF Qualifying Scenarios

After 8 rounds, not much has been decided in CONCACAF. Pretty much all we know at this point is that Trinidad & Tobago won't be making a second consecutive trip to the World Cup after qualifying for the '06 edition. The next round of games could be a decisive one, as the US, Mexico, and Honduras can all clinch births to South Africa with the right results.

With so many scenarios possible, we're just going to focus on those involving the US (because that's why you're reading this after all, isn't it?). There are several different ways by which the US could earn an automatic birth on October 10th, some of which are a lot more likely than others.

First, the US could win in Honduras. Simple as that; a win gets the US a World Cup birth (and would also put Honduras on its heels going into the final game of qualifying). Now, this is far easier said than done, and many feel that even considering this to be a possibility is overly optimistic. Honduras has been dominant at home in every sense of the word, winning all 8 of their home games by a combined score of 22-3. This includes two victories over Mexico and a 4-0 dismantling of then-first place Costa Rica. So while this is certainly a possibility, other scenarios seem a little more realistic.
The second way in which the US could qualify for South Africa next round is if Costa Rica lose to Trinidad & Tobago at home. A few months ago, the thought of Costa Rica losing at home would have seemed laughable; after their 3-0 home defeat to Mexico, though, Costa Rica are looking like a shell of the side that dominated qualification early on. Even though Costa Rica will be debuting a new coach and are in a state of disarray, Trinidad & Tobago are the Hex cellar dwellers and have only earned five points to this point, so a road win for the already-eliminated Soca Warriors doesn't seem too realistic either. Nevertheless, T&T has put in two solid road performances, earning a point at El Salvador (which neither Costa Rica or Mexico could do) and putting in a good showing at Estadio Azteca. The X-factor in all of this will be whether T&T have the motivation to play the spoiler and go at Costa Rica hard even though their World Cup dreams are over.

This brings us to our next possibility, which seems the most likely so far. A Costa Rica-T&T draw would essentially guarantee the US an automatic birth, barring some cataclysmic pair of results for Bob Bradley's squad. The US has a nine goal advantage over Costa Rica in goal differential, so unless the Nats lost their last two games by nine goals, a Costa Rica-T&T draw would essentially give them a place in the World Cup. So, the US could qualify next round even with a loss at San Pedro Sula. If a Costa Rica-T&T draw is coupled with a US-Honduras draw, that also would put the Yanks through to South Africa.

All three CONCACAF automatic births could be decided on October 10th. Mexico, Honduras, and the US could all qualify if the following happens: 1) Costa Rica loses to T&T, 2) Honduras beats the US, and 3) Mexico earns at least a point against El Salvador. With the way qualifying has gone up to this point, though, expect it to go right down to the wire, with all four teams looking to avoid the dreaded two-leg playoff with CONMEBOL's fifth place team.


With the next round of World Cup Qualifying being so important around the world, we will be analyzing all of the confederations over the coming weeks, so you know what to look out for on October 10th.