Wednesday, February 24, 2010

How an MLS Work Stoppage Would Affect the USMNT for the 2010 World Cup

I took a day off yesterday, but I'm back feeling refreshed and ready to give you of the USMNT news and analysis that you've come to know and (hopefully) love (I'll settle for tolerate).

At this point, I'm sure you've heard about the MLS labor issues and the potential work stoppage that could effect the start of the 2010 season. If you're not familiar, I suggest you head over to our friends at Match Fit USA; Jason Davis knows more about the CBA dispute than any one man not directly involved in the process should.


At this point, you should be familiar with the style around these parts: take a relevant soccer issue and show how it connects to or impacts the USMNT.  So, while I usually leave MLS chatter for those much more knowledgeable  on the subject (and that are, frankly, much better writers than I am), I will delve into a little domestic league discussion today.  In terms of terminology such as "lockout" or "strike", I apologize in advance if I'm using them incorrectly in relation to what current developments indicate.  Just read them to mean "an extended period without MLS games".

Over recent weeks, I have read a number of pieces referencing the fact that the number of MLS players on the US World Cup roster has dwindled in comparison to previous cycles.  At this point, I could see at most only 5 US-based players getting the call to South Africa, with the actual number probably being only 3 or 4.  While the MLS crowd may dislike this trend of a diminishing role for the country's top league, it's actually a bit of an asset this time around.  After all, could you imagine the implications if say 11 or 12 guys most likely headed to the World Cup were involved in this situation?  Online message boards would cause an internet meltdown, the stress and worry from USMNT fans would be so great.  Instead, this time around, there are only a couple of guys to worry about, meaning Bob Bradley and Yanks fans everywhere can be a little less preoccupied with the situation.  (Of course, there are long lasting implications from a big step backwards for MLS that could have an impact on the USMNT down the road, but for now I'm taking the more immediate outlook.)

Of those aforementioned 5 MLS players I could see heading to South Africa, only 2 are regular starters: Landon Donovan and Jonathan Bornstein.  Of course, as Landon goes so goes the USMNT, so it'd be understandable if Yanks fans were nervous about the prospect of their best player not playing for the two months leading up to South Africa because of a strike or lockout.  But, from what I've gleaned from far too many blogs and news articles read is that in the event of a work stoppage, Landon would be able to extend his loan with Everton.  So, in that sense, there's an insurance policy that should keep the USMNT's driving force on the playing field (wherever that may be) regardless of what happens with these ongoing labor negotiations.  Whether Landon should come back to MLS or should try to stay at Everton regardless is a whole 'nother can of worms, but for now, the point is that he'll still be able to get a game (assuming what I said above is correct) and continue his fantastic run of form in the months leading up to the World Cup.

The other regular, Bornstein, presents an issue, as Bob Bradley has frequently utilized him as a starter at LB.  Despite the generally perceived lack of depth at that position, Bradley would not be without options for a replacement if needed.  Carlos Bocanegra was on the left side in the USMNT's biggest win of 2009 (Spain), in addition to playing there for Stade Rennes.  Jonathan Spector, meanwhile, has been seeing a lot of time at LB for West Ham over the past couple of months, adding a little more flexibility to lineup selection.  So, if for whatever reason Bornstein is unable to get any meaningful club matches leading up to South Africa, Bradley will still have some other experienced fill-ins available if he isn't comfortable starting the Chivas USA defender.

After that duo, I really see only one more MLS lock for the World Cup roster, that being one of the two target forwards currently in the mix: Conor Casey and Brian Ching.  Bradley started a target striker in two big World Cup qualifiers (at Mexico and at Honduras), and he brought on Casey late in several Confederations Cup matches.  Unlike with Bornstein, this a spot where there isn't exactly a Euro-based player that can fulfill the role that these two play; someone like Jozy Altidore or Eddie Johnson doesn't play the same type of game that Ching or Casey bring to the table.  For me, this would present the only real problem for Bob Bradley, as he'd likely have a player with a fairly prominent role in his game plan that could be coming off up to two months without a club game.  Even in that case, however, there is national team camp and the send off series to help either of the MLS big men regain some form and sharpness prior to South Africa.

I could see two more spots going to Chad Marshall and one of Robbie Findley or Jeff Cunningham, but these hardly present any type of serious issue.  At this point, Marshall is behind Clarence Goodson in the race for that fourth center back spot, so a replacement (and a seemingly better player) is available at a position that Bob Bradley most likely won't even need to utilize (though you can never be too sure).  As far as Findley and Cunningham go, neither of them have shown enough to merit a spot in the squad at this point, and an adequate Euro replacement exists in the form of Eddie Johnson.  Though many EJ deriders will be hesitant to admit it, the former Fulham reserve is doing some good work in Greece and quietly doing what he needs to do to make a case for a World Cup ticket.  Thus, an out of form Findley or Cunningham is not a huge issue at this point.  Of course, this could be a much different story if Charlie Davies is unable to play (though at this point I'm optimistic he will) or if either of those two strikers can really impress against El Salvador and the Netherlands.  If that's the case, then a couple of months without a club game would be cause for concern.  For now, though, not too big of a deal.

The last MLS guy in the mix (in my opinion, of course, which ultimately means nothing but is reflective of the current state of things, I think) is Robbie Rogers, but his role with the national time is not too prominent.  It's far from certain that he'll even make the World Cup squad, either, with the late charges from Freddy Adu and DaMarcus Beasley adding competition for an outside midfield spot.  Once again, it's a case of there being multiple Europe-based players being available, making a potential lack of meaningful minutes for Rogers much less of a concern than if he were far and away the best player at his position in the pool.

So, as far as individual preparations and form go, any kind of MLS work stoppage would not present too many pressing issues for the USMNT.  Even in the event of a worst-case scenario (from the USMNT perspective) of a strike or lockout that lasts up until the end of May when players are released for international duty, there are a number of other options available, and a couple of the players in question have small roles with the team any way.  It might make Bob Bradley's selection process a little easier, but there is the matter of what could have been that we'd never really know about.  Who knows, maybe we'd be being denied a torrid start to the MLS season from Robbie Findley or nearly two months of very confident play from Jonathan Bornstein.  But, again, we'd never really know, so it'd hardly be as apparent come time for roster selection.

I'm not so sure a work stoppage would preclude a player like Rogers or Bornstein from training with a European club in the meantime, so that's another means by which the blow could be softened a bit for the USMNT.  Regardless, an extended stoppage (again, I want to emphasize that all the scenarios I've enumerated are involving one that lasts until late May at least) would have an impact, though at this point I don't think it'd be anything massive worth losing sleep over.  

The possibility of such a stoppage, however, just makes games like tonight's friendly against El Salvador that much important in the grand scheme of roster selection, so be sure to tune in to ESPN Classic at 7 PM ET.

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