Project 2010: Where Do We Stand?

Today was a rough day at the office so to speak, but I didn't want to deny you that daily fix of USSD that I'm sure you're all jonesing for.  So, while it may not be my best piece of work, here's a post for all you loyal readers that have been coming back and supporting this hack.  Enjoy the ramblings:

Per the suggestion of a couple of folks on Twitter (here are your shout outs, @Jcnyy1979 and @RobertBrown86), I'll spend this post talking about the Outside the Lines feature on Project 2010 from yesterday.  For those who missed it, here it is:



It was a given that once this World Cup rolled around, Project 2010 would come up. While some will be legitimately upset that we're not heading into this tournament as one of the favorites, I think the overwhelming majority of USMNT fans understand that this ambitious development schedule was exactly that: ambitious. While we're not yet of the same ilk as the Brazils, Spains, and Germanys of the world, we've definitely made significant strides in the international game and we are a legitimate top 20 team. To reiterate some of the points I made in this post from last month,we might not have a great chance of World Cup glory, but we've gotten to the point where the idea of the US winning the World Cup isn't just a ludicrous impossibility.  If the Confederations Cup showed us anything, it's that we're capable of rising to the occasion and stringing together a couple of quality performances on a huge stage. Whether you believe we are indeed "positioned to win the World Cup in 2010" is a matter of interpretation, but when you consider some instances in the past, that oft-thought stretch of a statement isn't really that far off.

Sunil Gulati is exactly right when he says that anything can happen; just look back to 2002 for a prime example.  Turkey entered the tournament ranked #22 in the world, with few considering them to be a legitimate threat to lift the trophy at tournament's end.  But it was circumstances outside of their control that helped them reach the brink of FIFA glory.  Like the USMNT this time around, they received a very favorable group stage draw: Brazil, China, and Costa Rica.  They lost their opener against the group favorite and got the two necessary results against the weaker teams in the group to make the Round of 16 (which sounds a lot like what most are saying the US needs to do against the likes of England, Algeria, and Slovenia).  From there, they took advantage of the unpredictability of the tournament, making it all the way to the semifinal without facing off against a truly elite team in the knockout stages.  There, they lost to Brazil in a close semifinal, eventually taking home third place. 

What I'm trying to say with that rambling aside is that the results of other groups has perhaps the biggest impact in helping a second tier team like the US make a deep run in the World Cup.  Turkey could have very well met up with England or Argentina in the quarterfinals, but instead it was Senegal.  In South Africa, if Bob Bradley's side makes it the Round of 16, their path to the semifinals could go through the likes of Australia and Mexico; two quality teams, but two teams that many would feel the US has a legitimate shot of defeating.  Then again, the path to the semis could go through Germany and Argentina.  It is all dependent on the upsets and surprises that are inevitable in a month long tournament.  Often we're quick to write off a sizeable chunk of the field before a ball is even kicked, but this assumes that everything will go according to plan, which we all know rarely happens, if ever. 

So, to conclude this round-about post, do I believe that the USMNT is positioned to win the 2010 World Cup?  Yes.  We have talented players and a system that, love it or hate it, has given much more talented teams a run for their money.  Are our chances of winning the World Cup very big?  No, but a lot of things over the opening weeks of June could dictate if those odds improve or worsen.  I don't think many truly believed that Turkey was positioned to win a World Cup back in 2002, and I'm sure most will disagree with me and say that the US isn't in such a spot this time around.  But, as many of the major tournaments over the past decade have shown us, there's always one or two mid-level teams who parlay a fortunate draw and a couple solid results into a semifinal or final appearance.  Greece at Euro 2004, Russia at Euro 2008, Iraq at the 2007 Asian Cup, and South Korea and Turkey at the 2002 World Cup are just a few examples of this (not to mention a certain American team making a surprise run to last summer's Confederations Cup final).

I don't think we need to change our expectations or goals; I think we just need to change how we interpret being "positioned to win a World Cup".  We're not the favorites, but that's not necessarily the question up for debate.  The bottom line is, with good health, some luck, and a well-timed run of form, this team is indeed positioned to duplicate the success of those aforementioned international surprises and carry their run into July.  By my interpretation, that sounds like Project 2010's lofty goal is actually within reach.

I'm sure I'll get some comments calling me crazy or overly optimistic; c'est la vie.  Cut me some slack on what hasn't been one of my better days.