The FIFA Rankings Explained

Every month we hear about them; which teams rose, which teams fell, and where the USMNT stands.  They've been tinkered with through the years and criticized frequently, one example of which being the lead up to the 2006 World Cup, when the Yanks rose up to 4th.  Regardless of some of their shortcomings, the FIFA rankings are consistently used as a rough metric to reflect a team's ability, both in the media and in seeding for tournaments and qualification.

But how do the powers that be come up with these numbers exactly?  Until I started reading up on the topic to write this post, I really didn't know the precise calculations behind the point allocations, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who was in the dark as to how the folks in Zurich went about ranking their 208 member national teams.  So, without further ado, let me explain the process, so the next time you hear the latest rankings or want to impress your footy friends, you'll know exactly what's going on.  There's a number of calculations involved, but fear not if you're not exactly a math person; the individual steps aren't too hard to understand.

For starters, let's just look at how ranking points for one match are determined.  I'll first present to you the formula, and then explain how each component is calculated.  For all of this to apply, a team must play at least 5 matches every year.  Otherwise, there are some differences in the calculation method.  With that in mind, here it is:


Ranking Points = 100(Result Pts. x Match Type x Opposition Strength x Regional Strength)

Result Points: This one is pretty simple; each result earns a specific number of points from 0-3.

Win = 3 pts.

PK Win = 2 pts.

Draw = 1 pt.

PK Loss = 1 pt.

Loss = 0 pt.

Match Type: Unlike in systems past, the current calculation attempts takes into account the type of match that is being played.  From friendlies to World Cup matches, the following values are assigned: 

Friendly = 1

World Cup qualifier or Continental qualifier = 2.5

Continental finals or Confederations Cup = 3

World Cup finals = 4

It's hard to account for friendlies, given the frequent experimentation or under-manned squads that participate, but the lower multiplier assigned to that type of match helps to curb their overall influence and give more weight to a team's competitive matches. 

Opposition Strength: This part of the formula takes into account the opposition; obviously, a win against Spain should get a lot more weight than a win over Papua New Guinea.  The following is applied to determine this factor:

Opposition Strength = (200 - opponent ranking)/100

The higher a team is ranked in the most recent FIFA rankings, the closer to 2 (the maximum value applied for a match against the #1 team, a slight deviation from this subformula) the multiplier is.  For games against teams ranked lower than 150, the multiplier does not continue to drop, instead just stopping at .50 for the minnows of the world.  Initially, I questioned this part of the formula, as one team's ranking depends on another's, which may be much higher or lower than it should be.  It's not exactly perfect, but at least it tries to address the issue of opponent quality. 

Regional Strength: This factor takes into account the strength of the respective confederations of the teams involved.  All six confederations are assigned a value from .85 to 1 based on their performance in the past three World Cups:

UEFA = 1

CONMEBOL = .98

CONCACAF, AFC, CAF, and OFC = .85

(UPDATE: Following the 2010 World Cup, these coefficients were adjusted to the following: UEFA- 1.00, CONMEBOL- 1.00, CONCACAF- 0.88, CAF- 0.86, AFC- 0.86, OFC- 0.85)

The Regional Strength multiplier is the average of the multipliers for the two teams involved in a match. (e.g. .99 for a match between Brazil and Italy).  So while it may not be your favorite thing to see, success by some of our CONCACAF rivals at the World Cup actually helps the USMNT's ranking in the long run by boosting the CONCACAF multiplier.  

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Here's an example to illustrate how the formula would allocate points to a team (say, Team A) to a friendly match between Team A (UEFA, 20th ranked) and Team B (OFC, 100th ranked) that Team A wins:

Result: 3

Match Type: 1

Opposition Strength:1

Regional Strength: .925

Points = 100 x 3 x 1 x 1 x .925

Points =277.5

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To calculate a team's total ranking points for the last 12 months, all of the ranking points allocated within that period are averaged (that is, assuming the team has played at least 5 matches in the year; in the event that they have played less, their points are simply divided by 5 instead of the actual number of games played).  To calculate a team's final overall FIFA ranking (the one you hear each month), the team's ranking points for each of the previous four years (all determined by averaging the ranking points earned in the respective 12 month periods) are added together and the rounded to the nearest whole number.  The only caveat is that more recent results are given a greater weight, with the earliest years' ranking points being deflated by the following multipliers:

Last 12 months: 1

Between 12 and 24 months ago: .5

Between 24 and 36 months ago: .3

Between 36 and 48 months ago: .2

The previous ranking system took into account the last eight years of results, but was shortened down to four years after being criticized and re-examined.

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So there you have it.  Simple, right?  Okay, maybe not.  Unless you have a freakishly good memory and can remember previous rankings and results, some quick, back-of-the-envelope ranking calculations aren't really feasible.  Thankfully, there are a bunch of people with calculators at the FIFA headquarters that do this for us every month.

If, for whatever reason, you already have a very intimate knowledge of this subject or have done some research of your own and have found an error in anything I've said, feel free to correct me.  With multiple steps and conditions, it's pretty easy to slip up somewhere along the way.