Not Drinking the Buddle Kool-Aid Just Yet

Well, if you weren't paying attention this weekend, you just missed the same old, same old.  Edson Buddle bagged another two goals, while Herculez Gomez matched him with a brace of his own.  That makes 7 goals in 4 matches for Buddle and 10 in 13 for Herc, tying him for the league lead.  Ho-hum.

Okay, obviously these type of goalscoring runs haven't been very common for American strikers of late,  so naturally folks are getting pretty excited.  Yesterday, Keith Hickey at Match Fit USA made his opinion on the matter pretty clear, with the headline "Edson Buddle Should Go to South Africa".  While I'm certainly pleased with the well-timed, torrid run of form, I must say that I am still very hesitant to drink the Buddle kool-aid.

Before I get into this, let me preface my argument by saying this: as it stands, I see Buddle (and Gomez, for that matter, though I'll focus this post on the former.  Much of the same logic applies for both, though) as a safe bet for the preliminary group of 30, and I expect him to get a call into camp.  But for me, there's a lot more that needs to be seen in the coming weeks from Buddle and from others before I can justify slotting him into the final 23.  It isn't as simple as just saying "Player X is playing well, so he should get a spot," because Player X getting a spot means that Player Y doesn't get one.  When it comes down to it, spots are scarce, and Bob Bradley has to do everything he can to maximize not just the individual ability of the team, but also the flexibility and chemistry.  The latter might sound a little soft and non-essential, but the USMNT has been a team that has proven itself to be greater than the sum of its parts, relying on a system that entails a certain degree of familiarity.  And, whether you like the system or not, it's probably not going to change just a month and a half ahead of the finish line. 

To go back to the point of Player X and Player Y, let's take a look at the final 23.  As it stands now, here's who I think have already earned their place in South Africa (assuming they're healthy):

Defenders: Onyewu, Bocanegra, Spector, DeMerit, Cherundolo, Goodson, and Pearce/Bornstein (one of the two)

Midfielders: Donovan, Dempsey, Holden, Edu, Feilhaber, Bradley, Torres, Bedoya

Strikers: Altidore, Davies, Ching/Casey (depending on Ching's health)


Add in the three keepers, and that accounts for 21 of the 23 tickets to South Africa.  As far as defenders go, there's the question as to whether Bradley will bring 7 or 8, so I'll leave it at 7 for now to maximize the number of "open spots" still left up for grabs.  And, like it or not, either Heath Pearce or Jonathan Bornstein will likely make the trip for depth's sake.

In his post, Keith voices his opinion regarding Brian Ching and Conor Casey, believing them to be inadequate and forced attempts to replace Brian McBride.  He then goes on to say that Buddle would be more useful than either in South Africa.  While I may agree with that in theory, it just doesn't go with the facts; Bob Bradley has consistently utilized a target forward throughout his tenure, and he's had pretty good success doing so.  I don't see why he would suddenly deviate from that, so I would be very surprised not to see Ching or Casey on the final roster. 

With all that in mind, that leaves a handful of guys on the bubble battling it out for just two spots.  Some players in that category would be DaMarcus Beasley, Ricardo Clark, the other half of Pearce/Bornstein, Edson Buddle, and Herculez Gomez.  Given Oguchi Onyewu's situation, I wouldn't be surprised to see an eighth defender added to give some cover at outside back if Bocanegra is forced to slide centrally.  There's also the point of providing depth at wing midfield to allow Clint Dempsey or Landon Donovan to slide up top if need be (which, at this point, I still believe is a better lineup option than Gomez or Buddle) and adding some more World Cup experience.  That adds value to DaMarcus Beasley, who still has decent World Cup prospects despite a lack of minutes at Ibrox thanks to a strong showing in Amsterdam that will not be soon forgotten by Bob Bradley.  Then, there's the matter of having a back up option for a position that is critical to the US' scheme: defensive center mid.  Should cards become an issue for Maurice Edu, Ricardo Clark would be the preferred replacement from the player pool.  While other center mid pairings could certainly play together, they would not provide the same defensive ability that a Bradley-Rico tandem would.  Just look at Torres-Bradley from USA-Netherlands; the Dutch exploited gaps behind the center mids throughout the opening 45, which led to a number of attacking opportunities.  Torres isn't the strongest defender, and it would be a step down to put him in that role over Clark, with the same being said of Feilhaber as well.

So, needless to say, Gomez and Buddle still have some competition to earn their spot on the plane, and it goes beyond just individual ability to team tendencies and available alternatives. 

Now, of the course there is still a lot up in the air, such as Rico's club playing time.  Granted, this is a big issue.  But it's part of the reason I'm not yet ready to jump in and throw my support behind Buddle and indirectly push Clark (or someone else) off my big board.  Frankfurt has been in the midst of a race for a Europa League spot ever since Rico made the move back in January.  They had a nice string of results over the past couple of months, keeping them in the race, so clearly it was not the time to experiment with a new signing, hence Rico's bench splinters.  But thanks to a bad couple of results, Frankfurt are now on the brink of being eliminated from contention for that European spot.  It's very likely that the next round of games will put it out of reach, making their last two ultimately meaningless.  In that type of low-pressure situation, where the result only matters for pride's sake, I could see the Frankfurt manager giving Rico some minutes to prove himself, particularly since the team's center mids have been less than stellar in the last two matches (a bad loss to Borussia Monchengladbach and a draw against last place Hertha Berlin) and since Frankfurt have yet to decide on picking up Rico's option for the coming seasons.  If he gets those appearances and looks decent, he suddenly isn't such a huge question mark.  Of course, that may not happen; the point is, I want to wait and see first before I make my judgment.

The  same situation applies for Beasley as well, as Rangers will most likely clinch the SPL title this weekend, leaving them a couple of meaningless games at the end of the year.  Knowing that his player is still on the USMNT bubble, there's a chance that Walter Smith gives DMB a good chunk of minutes to prove himself. 

And of course, the health of Charlie Davies is also something to consider.  But once again, let's wait and see how he looks if/when he gets some minutes at the tail end of the Ligue 1 season and in the send-off series.  It might sound ridiculous to suggest that Charlie might be close to his old self by the time June 1 rolls around, but really, has anything that this guy has done to this point been normal?  Would it really be that much of a surprise after all he's already done?  How effective Davies will dictate whether another striker option beyond the aforementioned trio is even necessary. 

Like I said, I see Buddle and Gomez as safe bets for the preliminary 30, and I see at least one of them (probably both) getting the call into camp.  But there's still a lot that could happen between now and June 1, and I'd rather exercise some patience and let things play out before putting all my support behind someone who has really only been on the national team picture for a couple of weeks (or, in the case of Gomez, a couple of months).

I agree with Keith in that a lot of variables are still in play.  Buddle's form could drop off completely, or health issues with other options might arise.  If things fall into place and he continues to shine, then I would definitely start to reconsider my position on the matter.  But until that happens, I'm just going to continue to watch all the fringe players (Buddle included) intently and consider their potential value to the national team in South Africa.