David, Goliath, and Parity at the World Cup

France is imploding.  England is in disarray.  Germany just got a nice punch to gut from Serbia.  Spain looks like they're on a collision course for a Round of 16 match-up with Brazil (that is, if they can make it out of Group H).  Portugal couldn't muster a goal against Ivory Coast.  Italy have just two points after matches against Paraguay and New Zealand.  Outside of the Dutch (who still haven't been overly impressive in their wins), the supposed UEFA elite is struggling in South Africa. 

Why is it happening? Well, it really varies on a case by case basis.  Whether it's Raymond Domenech completely losing his team's respect, an unfortunate red card to Miroslav Klose, or the lofty expectations and pressures of the public weighing heavily on the psyche of the Three Lions, each of the aforementioned "underachievers" are dealing with their own set of obstacles that may be contributing to their slow starts.

I use quotes when saying that those teams are underachieving because I'm not convinced that that is the case.  Are they failing to live up to legitimate expectations, or are expectations inaccurately inflated?  We expect to see the likes of France, Italy, and England in the knockout rounds more often than not, and most predictions that I read (if not all) had that trio easily progressing, while also anticipating smooth sailing for Germany and both teams from the Iberian peninsula.  But maybe those predictions (which include my own, to be fair) were based on nothing more than the past rather than the present.  Italy is four years older, France and Portugal had to grind through qualification, and England are perennial disappointments.  Could it be that these teams are in their own respective "tin generations", the answer to so many lesser teams' "golden generations" that help them achieve atypical levels of success?  Well, considering the talent on that those nations can field, no.  But when it comes to being a team rather than a collection of all-stars, I think it is fair to say that a couple of those teams are indeed on the decline.  But is that enough to explain what we've seen to this point?

Could it just be that the rest of the world is catching up?  Last year, Americans had to sweat out a tight final round of qualification, one in which the top four teams were all just as capable of earning an automatic berth as they were of sliding into the playoff spot with just two matches remaining.  Despite the fact that the Yanks pulled off a couple of positive results against Honduras and Costa Rica in October to secure a second consecutive finish atop the Hex, negativity was not uncommon, as fans and pundits alike wondered why the mighty US was struggling to dominate the inferior opponents being offered up by Central America.  One of the common theories that often was accompanied by a doom-and-gloom connotation was that, quite simply, the rest of CONCACAF was gaining ground on the US, and it was only a matter of time before Los Ticos, Los Catrachos, and their UNCAF brethren were beating the Yanks on a regular basis. 

How accurate that belief is is up for debate.  While I don't think the US is in danger of falling down the North American pecking order, I do believe that on the whole, the tide is rising for the second tier of CONCACAF teams.  In this age of globalization and player movement, we have Hondurans playing in Romania and China, Costa Ricans playing in the Netherlands, and Americans playing in Norway, Greece, and Scotland.  More so than ever before, particularly with the assistance of the internet, talent is being spotted everywhere and imported accordingly by superior teams.  Whereas in years past, teams from smaller, less affluent nations may have relied almost exclusively on domestic based players, even the supposedly weaker squads can boast a couple of players in the world's top leagues.  Further, their coaches at the international level can now have eyes across the globe, monitoring opponents and pool players alike thanks to satellite TV and internet streams, giving them all the tools necessary to develop the appropriate game plan.

That logic isn't limited to CONCACAF.  The same thing applies to likes of CONMEBOL, AFC, CAF (though you wouldn't know it by this World Cup), and the rest of UEFA beyond the traditional powers.  Heck, even New Zealand has made some significant strides in the past cycle, though much of it went unnoticed until their recent success.  Going into this World Cup, I made the remark that this field is one of the deepest in recent memory in that there a number of quality teams capable of making a run beyond the usual suspects, with Serbia, Paraguay, and the US serving as my main examples.  So far, nothing that has happened has really negated that opinion, though I have to admit that I didn't expect some of those second tier teams to succeed at the expense of the traditional elite, but rather alongside them. 

Could it be that parity is, to a degree, seeping into the beautiful game?  Perhaps, though certainly not close to the extent that we Americans are accustomed to in the NFL and MLS.  The top teams and leagues around the world continue to search for cheap talent to bolster their ranks, which ultimately might be pulling the lesser nations up and holding the world powers back, narrowing the gap.  For example, look back a couple of years when more than a few people in England blamed the team's failure to qualify for Euro 2008 on the English Premier League's increasing percentage of foreign-born players.  Could it be that this trend took us all by surprise because of the infrequent nature of the World Cup?  A lot can change in four years time, and it seems that a good deal has.

But is this here to stay or are is this one big anomaly?  Only time will tell.  There's a decent chance that all of these nonsensical ramblings will look even more nonsensical if many of those aforementioned struggling teams right the ship and move on to the knockout rounds.  There's also the possibility that we're just at a unique intersection of those so-called "golden generations", with a lot of mid-level teams riding an unprecedented wave of talent that just might peter out as quickly as it bubbled up.  Who knows?  One thing is certain, though; to this point, the Davids are standing toe-to-toe with the Goliaths of world football and taking something away from it fairly often. 

It definitely makes for a lot of entertaining matches when comparatively less talented teams are able to hold their own against the big boys, even when it ends in defeat (look no further than North Korea-Brazil for an example of that).  Will this surprisingly level playing field last through July?  Will we see the footy equivalent of Butler's shock run to the final of this year's NCAA basketball tournament?  I hope so, but no one knows.

As a fan, though, these results have given me confidence that this time around, more so than in previous tournaments, anything can happen in the knockout rounds.  And that "anything" could very well be an historic run from the US.

Let's just hope they can take care of business against Algeria to put themselves in a position to take advantage of the situation.