Slovenia Scouting Report
I didn't do this for the England match because names like Rooney, Lampard, and Gerrard are pretty common knowledge amongst American soccer fans (and even some casual fans, for that matter). When it comes to Slovenia, though, there probably aren't too many folks who know the names Handanovic, Kirm, or Ljubijankic as well. So, here's my attempt to pass on everything I've gathered about the Green Dragons to prepare you for Friday's pivotal match in Johannesburg.
It's no secret that Slovenia are a team built around defensive organization; they gave up just six goals in 12 qualifying matches and managed to stifle Algeria's attack for 90 minutes on Sunday. But what about the offensive side of things? The Slovenian attack can best be described as opportunistic, with their playoff win over Russia and their recent matches against New Zealand and Algeria serving as evidence of that.
In their lone pre-World Cup tune-up, Slovenia put together a 3-1 win over New Zealand, with their opening two goals coming off of the foot of 6'3'' striker Milivoje Novakovic. The big target forward from Cologne is capable of challenging in the air and holding up well, but he's also shown the ability to strike off of set pieces. Both of his goals against New Zealand were free kick shots from about 20 yards out; one went up and over the wall, while the other snuck around the wall and inside the near post. Clearly, it will be important that the US defense doesn't give away any cheap fouls around the 18, or Novakovic could make them pay. With Slovenia likely relying on the counterattack, Jay DeMerit and Oguchi Onyewu will have to be smart with their physical play, understanding how the numbers stack up so as to not foolishly give away a free kick and give the Slovenians a chance to bring the big guys forward or set up for a shot on goal.
Another player to watch out for is Valter Birsa. The Auxerre winger caught my eye in both of Slovenia's recent matches, showing aggressiveness and speed on the ball going forward. Birsa also showed that he can hit a good shot, lashing out a couple of surprisingly powerful strikes in both games, one of which nearly opened the scoring against Algeria. He's a creative player capable of creating and causing some trouble, which should again provide a challenge for Steve Cherundolo (assuming Birsa again starts on the left). A bad turnover with the outside backs pushed forward could be a potential disaster if Birsa gets acres of space on the wing to run at the box.
The man that most World Cup fans are familiar with at this point is Robert Koren, the West Brom midfielder who scored the game-winner against Algeria. Despite the fact that he was gifted that goal by Faouzi Chaouchi (who was doing his best to upstage Robert Green), Koren is still one of Slovenia's most creative players in the attack and will likely play behind the two starting strikers. He is not as strong defensively, which could benefit the US if they opt for a more creative presence in the center of the field.
With all of that being said, Slovenia will be going up against a goalkeeper in Tim Howard that, even when hurt, is a substantial upgrade over Chaouchi and New Zealand's Mark Paston. After taking all three points against Algeria, the Green Dragons will probably be content with a draw against the Yanks, meaning that, as usual, defense will be their primary focus come Friday morning. The back four that we saw in their opener will likely be the same one we see against the US, with Marko Suler and Bostjan Cesar in the center, Bojan Jokic on the left, and Miso Brecko on the right. Both Cesar and Suler are set piece threats, standing at 6'3'' and 6'2'' respectively. In the back, Cesar is a physical presence and very strong in the air, though he is not the fastest player (from what I have seen). Suler, meanwhile, is of a similar mold, though perhaps a little smoother on and off the ball.
Matching up with Clint Dempsey or Landon Donovan on the right side of the defense will be Brecko, also from Cologne. He's a solid, smart defender with decent recovery speed, though he's not a great threat going forward. On the opposite wing, Jokic is quick and can get involved in the attack effectively, but he is a step down from Brecko in terms of pure defensive play. That could mean big things for the US if Landon Donovan is able to repeatedly run at him from the wing.
Sitting behind them is the guy who will need to be big for Slovenia if they are to pull off another positive result. Samir Handanovic, who plays in Serie A for Udinese, made a couple of nice stops against Algeria to preserve the clean sheet and, at 6'4'', is capable of getting up for crosses well.
Some other players who will likely feature for Slovenia are Zlatko Dedic, Aleksandar Radosavljevic, and Andraz Kirm. Dedic is another Bundesliga player (well, before Bochum got relegated, that is), known best as the man who knocked off Russia with a first half volley to earn his nation a spot in South Africa. He's quick up front and will likely partner with Novakovic. Radosavljevic, meanwhile, is the equivalent of Ricardo Clark for lack of a better comparison. He sits in front of the back four and destroys, making up for any defense that is lost with Koren in the center of the park. He picked up a yellow card against Algeria, which might make him a little less aggressive or risky with his tackles, though I doubt it will have a discernible impact. As for Kirm, he's a fairly versatile player in the midfield, starting 10 of Slovenia's World Cup qualifiers. He played on the right side against Algeria, which would put him up against Carlos Bocanegra. That's probably the better match up for the US considering Birsa's skill, Steve Cherundolo's success against England's wingers, and Bocanegra's issues with Aaron Lennon.
Off of the bench, the likely candidates are Andrej Komac (who has guaranteed victory against the US), Nejc Pecnik, Zlatan Ljubijankic, and Branko Ilic. Ilic and Komac, a defender and central midfielder respectively, are more defensive-minded replacements (Komac came on late against Algeria), while Ljubijankic and Pecnik are more offensive-minded options. Ljubijankic is a 6'1'' striker, while Pecnik is a midfielder that scored a crucial late goal against Russia in the first leg of their UEFA playoff.
Though the Slovenians have been hailed for their organization and defense, they were not flawless against Algeria. The North Africans were unlucky not to walk away without a point, as they controlled play during significant stretches of the match but ultimately were done in by a foolish second yellow card for Abdelkader Ghezzal. We'll see if the US can do what the Desert Foxes could not and find the back of the net. With that being said, they are indeed a quality defensive side capable of shutting down superior opponents with a disciplined, smart approach. Bob Bradley and company certainly know their opponent a lot better than I do, so I'm sure he's got a game plan lined up to try to break down that stubborn defense and shut down the Slovenian attack.
This might not be the most comprehensive look at things, and, who knows, it might even be a little inaccurate because of a small sample space of observations, but hopefully it isn't and gets the job done.

3 comments:
Just wondering why you think Slovenia would be content with a draw tomorrow. If they tie the US, and England and Algeria tie (unlikely), the table looks like this:
W L T PT GD
SLO 1-0-1 4 +1
ENG 0-0-2 2 0
USA 0-0-2 2 0
ALG 0-1-1 1 -1
and Slovenia needs at least a tie vs. England to ensure advancement (because USA may beat Algeria); which can happen but is no sure thing.
Or, if England beats Algeria tomorrow, and Slovenia and the US tie:
W L T PT GD
ENG 1-0-1 4 +1 (or better)
SLO 1-0-1 4 +1
USA 0-0-2 2 0
ALG 0-1-1 1 -2 (or worse)
Then, Slovenia still needs the US to not beat Algeria, or they need to beat England, to advance. If Slovenia ties England to get to 5 pts, then they're hoping that USA either doesn't win or wins by 1.
All that to say, I'm guessing Slovenia realize that their fate is in their own hands right now, and that beating the USA puts them through, and won't want to relinquish control. Not saying they'll go all-out attack, just saying they won't play for a scoreless draw, either. That would just open the door for heartbreak.
Yeah, I've run through the scenarios myself. Like you said, playing for a draw leaves them in a spot where they'd need a result against England and some help from the USA-Algeria result, which is far from a comfortable spot to be in on a number of levels. So hopefully they play for the win and guaranteed advancement, opening up the game a little.
Agreed - I think the more open Slovenia plays, the easier it will be for the US. I was not impressed with either team in the ALG-SLO game on Sunday, at least not enough to be worried that they'll beat the USA. If the game goes poorly, I think it'll be on our guys not being in it mentally more than Slovenia actually beating us. If our D plays like they did vs. England (or Spain last summer), we'll be ok on that end, and it'll just be a matter of cracking the Slovenian D (and finishing a couple chances, unlike Spain yesterday). And that task will be easier if Slovenia aren't just packing it in.
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