2012 Africa Cup of Nations Preview

With the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations set to kick off in less than 48 hours, here's your mega tournament preview post.

Before we jump into looking at the groups and each of the teams, an important point to be made is that the winner of the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations will not earn a spot in the 2013 Confederations Cup. The CAF berth will instead go to the winner of the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations, as the tournament switches to odd years to avoid falling on the same year as the World Cup.

As such, some of the squads may reflect the fact that no Confederations Cup spot is on the line. But don't expect it to take much away from the on-field play; there is still tons of talent in this tournament and the Africa Cup of Nations never fails to bring some intense footy.

The tournament, co-hosted by Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, will start this Saturday with the opening match in Bata, Equatorial Guinea and will eventually wrap up with the final in Libreville, Gabon on February 12th.

Without further ado, let's dive right in with a look at the teams involved:

Group A:

Equatorial Guinea will be making their first appearance in a major international tournament, qualifying as tournament co-hosts. The nation of just under 700,000 people has a dark history of dictatorship- once being referred to as the "Dachau of Africa"- which continues to this day, with current President Teodoro Obiang proclaiming himself a god. That checkered past and the shortcomings and abuses of the nation will be pushed into the background as they attempt to put their best foot forward as tournament hosts. But it's an area that certainly merits some discussion as the tournament plays out in Bata and Malabo.

As for the national team, well, they'll have an uphill climb. Although FIFA rankings are often flawed, the triple digit (150) ranking for Equatorial Guinea is indicative of a team that has lost matches to Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau, and the France U-20s in the past six months. They will have the benefit of playing all three of their group stage matches in front of their home crowd, though, which could help them make up some of the gulf in talent between them and the other teams in their group.

Something interesting to note about Equatorial Guinea is that, of the 23 players in their tournament squad, just 2 were born in Equatorial Guinea. 10 were born in Spain (Equatorial Guinea was a Spanish colony until 1968), 5 were born in neighboring Cameroon, 2 were born in Cote d'Ivoire, 1 was born in Liberia, 1 was born in Colombia, and 1 was born in Brazil. Somewhere, an Equatorial Guinean equivalent of Preston Zimmerman is not too pleased about that. (I kid, I kid.)

Libya enters the tournament as one of the stories of resilience and perseverance. Due to the unrest in Libya this past year, the national team was able to play just one of its six qualifying matches at home. Nevertheless, they managed to secure qualification without a single loss.

The Libyans, who were scheduled to host next year's Africa Cup of Nations until CAF opted to move it to South Africa due to security concerns, will be playing a tournament under their new flag for the first time. With their nation still trying to gel following the upheaval of 2011, a few tournament wins certainly couldn't hurt by bringing some joy and pride to the people.

On the whole, Libya are a solid side that is more than capable of making some noise in the first round. Don't forget: unlike most teams entering this tournament, they are very familiar with and comfortable playing at neutral venues, which could work to their advantage in this tournament.

Zambia will be returning to the site of their greatest disaster. In 1993, a plane carrying the national team crashed in Gabon, killing all 30 passengers, including 18 national team players. Read this fantastic Sports Illustrated piece by Leigh Montville to learn more about the tragedy.

The Copper Bullets, as their known, managed to rebound from that dark day in amazing fashion, finishing as runners-up at the 1994 Africa Cup of Nations. They will be hard-pressed to replicate that success this time around, however. While Zambia have managed to beat weaker teams consistently, they have struggled to assert themselves against stronger opposition (e.g. taking just 1 of 6 points from Libya in qualification). Nevertheless, they are tournament regulars with a good deal of experience, something that makes them a team very capable of advancing beyond the group stage.

Senegal are the strongest side in Group A, boasting an impressive forward stable that, among others, includes Newcastle teammates Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba, not to mention Mamadou Niang and Moussa Sow. Ba, 26 years old, is enjoying his finest season as a pro and is among the EPL's league leaders in goals, with 15 in 19 appearances. If he is able to carry that form to the international level, Senegal could prove to be a very dangerous team in this tournament. They've already collected one scalp: Samuel Eto'o and Cameroon will be watching the tournament from home after getting shut out twice by Senegal in 2011.

Senegal also have one of the few MLS connections in this tournament: free agent goalkeeper and former MLSer Bouna Coundoul is on the team's tournament roster.

Group A Bottom line: The hosts will struggle despite home support, while Senegal look poised to take the top spot. Zambia and Libya will renew their mini-rivalry after having battled in the same qualification group; their meeting will likely determine the second team to go through to the quarterfinals.


Group B:

Cote d'Ivoire enter the tournament as one of the favorites to win it all. With the likes of Didier Drogba (even off form, he still poses a great threat), Gervinho, and Yaya Toure in the squad, the Elephants were dominant in qualification, taking the maximum 18 points from their six matches.

Recent friendly wins over fellow qualifiers Tunisia and Libya only further confirm what he already knew: Cote d'Ivoire will be one of the toughest teams in the field and are a safe bet to move on to the knockout rounds. They'll be hoping to redeem themselves after a disappointing 2010 Africa Cup of Nations in which they fell to Algeria in the quarterfinals in an extra time thriller.

Sudan will be playing in their first international tournament since the 2008 Africa Cup of Nations and since the country was split in two with the recent independence of South Sudan. While Sudan are no pushovers- they managed to draw Ghana in qualification- they will face a tall task in Group B, and odds are they will not be able to advance.

A fun fact: Sudan are the only team in the tournament whose entire 23-man roster plays domestically. The entire squad comes from just 6 Sudanese club teams.

Burkina Faso are bit of a wildcard, having had each of their last two competitive group reduced from 4 to 3 teams, thereby creating a smaller sample size of matches for outside observers like myself to parse over. In 2010, Togo's withdrawal from the Africa Cup of Nations meant just two matches for Burkina Faso, while in 2011 the withdrawal of Mauritania from Africa Cup of Nations qualification meant Burkina Faso's path the tournament would include just four matches against the Gambia and Namibia- hardly world beaters.

They navigated qualification successfully, thanks in part to a cosmopolitan squad that includes players from 16 different leagues across Africa, Europe, and Asia. They'll be led by 31 year old forward Moumouni Dagano, one of the leading goalscorers in all of the 2010 World Cup qualification process. His 30 goals in 47 caps is an impressive strike rate, but it must be said: though Dagano has featured in four Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, he has scored just one tournament goal, way back in 2002 against Morocco. If Burkina Faso are to advance, they'll likely need Dagano to buck that trend.

Angola return the Africa Cup of Nations after hosting the 2010 tournament. After a slow start to qualification, they managed to overcome an up-and-coming Uganda side and a plucky Kenya to reach their fourth straight Africa Cup of Nations.

Angola have one of the older sides in the tournament, with 8 players over the age of the 30 and several holdovers from the team that played at the 2006 World Cup. The lone Angolan goalscorer from that tournament, Flavio, will look to add to his total of 25 international goals, leading a forward corps that also includes Porto's Djalma Campos and the splendidly named World Cup veteran Love.

Angola's squad also includes Wilson. No, not this guy; but rather a back-up goalkeeper.

Expect Angola to challenge for a spot in the quarterfinals, though it's unlikely that they'll be able to progress much deeper than that.

Group B Bottom Line: Cote d'Ivoire are a good bet to move on. Angola stand a good chance of joining them in the quarterfinals.


Group C:

Whereas Group A and Group B will take place entirely in Equatorial Guinea, Group C and Group D will take place in Gabon. The co-hosts will take the field in a couple of sparkling new venues in Libreville and Franceville. The Stade d'Angondje' in Libreville opened late last year with a friendly between Gabon and Brazil, a match that wasn't without its kinks that needed to be worked out: apart from a muddy field that retained some water, the power went out early on, delaying the match.

Nevertheless, the stadiums and this opportunity to host are a point of pride for Gabon, who will be seeking to take advantage of the home field advantage and reach uncharted territory; their previous best finish in the Africa Cup of Nations is a quarterfinals berth in 1996. With three group matches in front of their home fans and (potentially) a quarterfinal match in friendly territory as well, plus a navigable (but not easy) Group C, odds are good that Gabon will at least be able to match that 1996 tournament run.

Niger enter the tournament as one of the surprise qualifiers, emerging triumphant from a qualification group that included South Africa, Egypt, and Sierra Leone thanks to head-to-head advantage over South Africa and Sierra Leone (the three teams finished with 9 points apiece). That scenario actually led to a bizarre blunder by Bafana Bafana, who began celebrating their final draw against Sierra Leone, thinking it was enough to qualify, only to be told later that they did not understand the tiebreaker procedures correctly.

This will be Niger's first ever international tournament, and they'll bring a squad that is almost entirely based in Africa, with just four players plying their trade in Europe. One player to watch is 23 year old CSKA Moscow player Ouwo Moussa Maazou, who is currently on loan in Belgium. The striker has managed to score a goal in every other game he has appeared in for his country, and could be one of the tournament's breakout players.

He'll struggle, though, if his team is unable to perform away from home, as was the case in qualification: Niger won all three of their home matches, but lost each of their away matches, failing to score a single goal in those losses. Like fellow debutantes Equatorial Guinea, it will be an uphill climb for Niger, and the chances are that their tournament will end in the group stage.

Morocco emerged from one of the most entertaining qualifying groups, beating out Algeria and the Central African Republic for a spot in the field. Their 4-0 thumping of the 2010 World Cup qualifiers paved the way for top spot in the group, and their stingy defense conceded just twice in six matches.

Arsenal forward Maroune Chamakh will be a player to watch in a Moroccan squad that is not short on talent. With that being said, in one of the more wide open groups in the field, Morocco could very well finish anywhere in the Group C table when all is said and done.

Tunisia enter the tournament after taking part in a longer qualification process, having played in the five-team Group K. Though they were unable to claim the top spot in the group, they still managed to qualify for their 10th straight Africa Cup of Nations as the second place finisher.

Questions remain about Tunisia's ability to beat good sides. While they were able to defeat a Togo side that has been out of sorts for some time, they failed to beat Malawi in two meetings and lost twice to Botswana. This has me very skeptical of their ability to advance deep into this tournament. But, with Group C being so tight and their team possessing so much tournament experience, they have a puncher's chance of at least moving on to the knockout rounds.

Group C Bottom Line: Gabon acquitted themselves well at the 2010 Africa Cup of Nations, and they should only fare better with the home crowd behind them. Niger will need to break their road losing streak, while Morocco seem more than capable of advancing. Tunisia's tournament experience could help them overcome a trend of disappointing performances against good sides.


Group D:

Ghana enter the tournament as one of the favorites along with Cote d'Ivoire. But this isn't the same Ghana side that nearly reach the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup. There are actually just 10 players from that team in the 23-man squad for this tournament, with players like Steven Appiah and Kevin Prince Boateng being a couple of the notable absences.

Nevertheless, the Black Stars bring a lot of quality to the table. But they'll have the tournament Group of Death to contend with, as they look to move on to the knockout rounds and win their first continental title since 1982. They eased through qualification, but will have a much tougher road to navigate this time around, as you'll see below.

Botswana are the third of the three tournament debutantes, and they look the most impressive of the three. Unfortunately for the Zebras, they first go around is in the Group of Death.

Led by a forward tandem of Dipsy Selolwane (former of the Chicago Fire, Real Salt Lake, and Saint Louis University) and Jerome Ramatlhakwane, Botswana were the first non-host team to qualify for the tournament. They were boringly efficient, scoring just 7 goals in 8 matches en route to a 5-2-1 (W-D-L) record, with Ramatlhakwane scoring 5 of those goals. Their lone loss came after qualification was secured, as they topped a group that included Togo, Tunisia, Malawi, and Chad.

Their stingy defense, which conceded just 3 times in 8 matches, will need to hold up if Botswana is to advance to the quarterfinals. But they'll face stiff tests in each of their group stage matches. Ultimately, a lack of offensive punch could keep the Zebras from progressing on.

Mali managed to beat out a decent challenge from Cape Verde in qualification to earn their 7th Africa Cup of Nations berth. While they are not the strongest team in the field, they represent another tough beat in a group filled with tough beats. A more appropriate name for Group D actually would probably the Group of Tough Beats; they might not all be world beaters, but it looks like there sure won't be any easy games.

Mali's Cheick Diabate, currently with Bordeaux, could be another breakout performer in this tournament. The 23 year old forward scored four goals in qualification and has scored 6 times in 13 appearances with his country since debuting in 2008.

Guinea could be one of the dark horses of this tournament. The West African side managed to qualify for this tournament by going through Nigeria, knocking out the Super Eagles thanks to a draw in Abuja on the final match day. They went unbeaten in six matches, including a 1-0 victory over the 2010 World Cup qualifiers at home.

The lone goalscorer in that match, Genoa forward Kevin Constant, will not be taking part in this tournament, but Guinea won't mind: their 13 goals in qualification came from 10 different players.

Guinea missed out on the 2010 Africa Cup of Nations, but reached the quarterfinals of the three previous tournaments. They'll be the favorites to advance along with Ghana, but they'll need to clear a couple of tricky matches against Mali and Botswana along the way.

Group D Bottom Line: Ghana will be the team to beat, but any team in this group is capable of moving on to the quarterfinals. Botswana's stingy defense will be tested greatly by the Black Stars, as well as Guinea's diversified attack. I expect some very close games in this group.

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Some general thoughts:

Beware Pot 4: The teams that were in Pot 4 for this draw- Libya, Sudan, Botswana, and Niger- will not be pushovers and very well could make some noise early on.

The Big Boys Are Out: Some of the big names not at this edition of the Africa Cup of Nations: three-time reigning champions Egypt, South Africa (in tragicomedic fashion), Algeria, Cameroon, and Nigeria. That means a whopping 13 of the last 16 Africa Cup of Nations champs will not be present. That has me thinking that we could very well see a first time champion this time around. Speaking of which...

Champion Prediction: It'd be easy to go with Cote d'Ivoire or Ghana in this spot. But I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Senegal will win their first ever Africa Cup of Nations. Take that to the bank. (Sorry for condemning your national team to failure, all you Senegal fans.)

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The tournament begins on Saturday, as Equatorial Guinea take on Libya in Bata. Here's the full tournament schedule, for those interested.

As usual, I'll try to send along any streams that I can find.

Enjoy, folks.